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  Essential Performance Forecasting - Paper RMOUG/IOUG/Collab'06 (March 2006)



 
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(This is the paper I will be preseting at the IOUG/Collab'06 conference this April.  I also presented it at this years RMOUG, but it's been updated since then.  The format of this version of the paper is MUCH better than the IOUG format.)

At a basic level, forecasting Oracle performance is absolutely essential for every DBA to understand and perform.  When performance begins to degrade, itís the DBA who hears about it, and itís the DBA whoís supposed to fix it.  Itís the DBA who has the most intimate knowledge of the database server, so shouldnít they be able to forecast performance?  When a bunch of new users are going be added to a system, itís the DBA who is quickly asked, ďThatís not going to be a problem, is it?Ē  So DBAs need the ability to quickly forecast performance.  Low precision forecasting can be done very quickly and it is a great way to get started forecasting Oracle performance.

This paper is a very brief introduction to forecasting Oracle performance.  There is much more I could write about performance forecasting.  (Thatís why I am writing a book entitled Forecasting Oracle Performance due in early 2007.)  Understanding the essentials of performance forecasting will allow any DBA to quickly and confidently perform low precision forecasts.  

In the first part of this paper, Iíll lay the foundational groundwork.  Iíll then concentrate on the CPU subsystem, then the IO subsystem.  Finally, Iíll bring everything together and discuss developing risk mitigating strategies and managing service levels.  So here we go...

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