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  Essential Performance Forecasting - Paper RMOUG/IOUG/Collab'06 (March 2006)



 
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Product Code: EPF_PPR

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(This is the paper I will be preseting at the IOUG/Collab'06 conference this April.  I also presented it at this years RMOUG, but it's been updated since then.  The format of this version of the paper is MUCH better than the IOUG format.)

At a basic level, forecasting Oracle performance is absolutely essential for every DBA to understand and perform.  When performance begins to degrade, it’s the DBA who hears about it, and it’s the DBA who’s supposed to fix it.  It’s the DBA who has the most intimate knowledge of the database server, so shouldn’t they be able to forecast performance?  When a bunch of new users are going be added to a system, it’s the DBA who is quickly asked, “That’s not going to be a problem, is it?”  So DBAs need the ability to quickly forecast performance.  Low precision forecasting can be done very quickly and it is a great way to get started forecasting Oracle performance.

This paper is a very brief introduction to forecasting Oracle performance.  There is much more I could write about performance forecasting.  (That’s why I am writing a book entitled Forecasting Oracle Performance due in early 2007.)  Understanding the essentials of performance forecasting will allow any DBA to quickly and confidently perform low precision forecasts.  

In the first part of this paper, I’ll lay the foundational groundwork.  I’ll then concentrate on the CPU subsystem, then the IO subsystem.  Finally, I’ll bring everything together and discuss developing risk mitigating strategies and managing service levels.  So here we go...

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